With all the talk about “polls,” few talk about the enthusiasm/participation gap. In the case of the Rasmussen poll, Scott Rasmussen gives us both the general approval/disapproval numbers AND the strongly approve/disapprove results. What is most interesting as relates to the “strongly” numbers is this, while Obama’s approval numbers have risen 5 points, on average but remain below 50%, his “strongly” numbers remain well below “30.”
The significance of this fact is realized in the reminder that these numbers were above 45, in 2008 -- back in the day when he had 13,000 folks doing nothing but writing emails and attending social media sites. I believe this number represents as serious an election problem as faces the Slickster. For what it is worth, I see no way Obama wins the coming election unless and until this “strongly approve” number approaches 40%. We forget that this clown in our White House won the 2008 election against a very unpopular John McCain, by only 7% of the popular vote. That is equal to a 3.5 % swing.
Date | Presidential Approval Index | Strongly Approve | Strongly Disapprove | Total Approve | Total Disapprove |
6/06/2012 | -14 | 26% | 40% | 49% | 50% |
6/05/2012 | -15 | 25% | 40% | 47% | 52% |
6/04/2012 | -16 | 24% | 40% | 47% | 52% |
6/03/2012 | -16 | 24% | 40% | 45% | 53% |
6/02/2012 | -14 | 27% | 41% | 46% | 53% |
Point of post: our assignment is straightforward; with regard to winning the coming election, all we need is the transition of 4% of the Obama 2008 winning totals to crossover to the Right side, and, assuming they are in 12 designated “swing” states, Obama can go back to Kenya or Compton or Chicago or wherever he came from.