Economy gas prices are beginning to level off but the populace does blame Obama policy for high prices at the pump. If the GOP is able to add in the mortgage failure, the Cash for Clunkers nonsense, the failed Stimulus, the rebates for golf cards idiocy and the criminal misuse of TARP, "economics" just might be the very issue that sinks the Obama re-election efforts.
Health Care a definite disadvantage for Democrats and the level of angst is growing.
Gov't Ethics and Corruption "scandal everywhere" does not help Democrats. This is the single most corrupt Administration since the so-called "modern era." Whether the GOP can and will make the case for this corruption is not yet known.
Taxes to date, this does not give advantage to either major party. While public opinion is equally divided on the "tax the rich" issue, it remains a fact that Obama has done nothing in terms of a final result.
Energy Policy this is another big goose egg for B Obama; pushing for alternative energy 30 years before we are structurally ready for the transition is a negative for this Harvard academic wacko.
Education if there is an advantage, here, it goes to B Obama. Perception, in this case, trumps reality.
Social Security people know Obama has done nothing here and that will work against his re-election.
Immigration Hispanics know that Obama failed them. He had promised comprehensive immigration by the end of 2009, the year he had absolute control of the both houses of congress. He did nothing - not even a note of intent on the issue.
National Security/War on Terror Obama is seen as somewhat successful,here, because of the killing of Osama bin Laden, primarily. If he cannot get control of the Israel/Iran situation, however, this will be a negative for him, soon enough.
Afghanistan there is nothing about this war that helps Obama. Fortunately for him, relatively few care.
Policies and events that could work against Obama but are not
on the above list, include:
Obama's increasing assault against religion will become a major factor. Cardinal Dolan, a charismatic leader, is just getting started with his organized and electoral response and the 15 million member Evangelical community is working on election year strategies, as well.
His failure with regard to GITMO and environmental reform has already driven a number of very influential liberals away from his candidacy. His inability to raise the kind of money he had envisioned is proof of this fact.
Alan Dershowitz, a very angry liberal Jew, is on the war path, as well. His efforts are just getting organized and promise to be a serious problem for the Slickmeister. His chief complaint is Obama's tie to the anti-Semitic MoveOn.org.
Obama's abject failure with regard to higher education's access and affordability is another failed promise Obama must deal with. There are no students - statistically speaking - who believe they are better off today because of Obama's policies.
If the dollar continues to weaken, manufacturing goes into decline (copper prices are on a downward trend and copper is the metal of choice for the manufacturing industry) and inflation can no longer be covered over, these considerations will alienate the women's vote, specifically. Understand that women, as a collective, care more about what effects their home than any other elective demographic. If their home life is threatened, they will move against that threat.
Iran, per se, is not an issue as of yet. Israel's refusal to bow to Obama and attack Iranian nuclear installations just might prove to be Obama's rescue. If Iran remains an issue come November, Obama is damaged.
If Egypt and Libya "officially" turn to radical Islam, Obama will bear the blame. The whole of the Middle East is a pending firestorm for our rogue president.
The state of the Israeli alliance with the U.S. is a negative, as well, and may increase to be a serious burden to the Obama campaign.
Make no mistake, the revival of the TEA party involvement will prove to be a critical influence - and, yes, "we" are coming.
Obama's decision to act "on his own," to continue to circumvent the checks and balances of congress, to disgrace the US Constitution as he develops his rogue attitudes, and to ignore or violate established federal law are already working against the man.
Eric Holder, a a comparative unintelligent and biased administrator is fast becoming a weight around Obama's neck.
Add to all of the above, issues involving MoveOn.org, inflation per se, congressional corruption inquiries, Fast and Furious per se, the increasing number of green investment failures - 15 and counting, the failure of the Chevy Volt, The GM bailout and the theft of millions of dollars in retirement funds is a serious problem, Obama's support of Occupy, Occupy's increasing violent trends (forcing Obama to move the G-8 out of Chicago), a change in the perception of his foreign policy "successes," an 8% or higher unemployment rate, a near "second recession," a doubling down on his assault against religion, a Supreme Court defeat of the individual mandate - should that be the case, the Supreme Courts 9 - 0 defeat of Obama's effort to take control of independent church hiring practices (Hosanna/Tabor Lutheran Church vs EEOC - January of 2012) the continuing revelations of the details of ObamaCare, and more.
Carter was not this venerable
Understand that Obama has or will have a response to all of the above. The question will rest in the believability of each of his explanations. Know this, Obama is disparately trying to "get ahead of the curve" in his assault of the GOP candidate, whoever that will be. He knows full well, that if this election is about him, he loses.
I believe this election is the GOP's to lose. The high negatives and consistently low approval ratings for Obama are indications that people have made up their minds about the man -- and did so two years ago. What remains in question is the viability of the GOP candidate - a true unknown at this point.