<<<< If Obama wins all states in which he rates 47% and higher and Romney wins all the states in which Obama rates 46% and lower, it winds up being a landslide election for Romney.
Besides the information below, all from Gallup, we know that the white vote is down to 26% on a dynamic scale. In 2008, the white vote for Obama total 43%. Keep in mind that the Slickster won the first election by 7.5% of the popular votes. Obama cannot win the election if this number, the white vote alone, remains consistently low. Mondale lost to Reagan in 1988 with a white vote of 31% -- Mondale won just one state and the District of Columbia in that election.
Besides the information below, all from Gallup, we know that the white vote is down to 26% on a dynamic scale. In 2008, the white vote for Obama total 43%. Keep in mind that the Slickster won the first election by 7.5% of the popular votes. Obama cannot win the election if this number, the white vote alone, remains consistently low. Mondale lost to Reagan in 1988 with a white vote of 31% -- Mondale won just one state and the District of Columbia in that election.
Also, military surveys give Obama a 35 to 59 percent disapproval rating. representing a huge margin of disappointment within the military community. Expect the Dems to try to repress that vote.
Understand that Obama is running behind in all ethnic demographics including Blacks. The Democrat enthusiasm levels are at history lows, as well. On Rasmussen, those who "strongly approve" of Obama are averaging a nominal 27%, down from 45% at the time of the '08 election.
 |
| Survey taken in February of 2012 - Gallup's most recent 50 survey |
Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.