For the third consecutive week, the number of first time benefit applicants has increased. This week, the increase is 3,000 up from the initial reporting of last week.
Understand that a game is played with this particular report. Each Thursday, the Department of Labor . . . . Obama's Department of Labor . . . . . . gives us an initial report for the number of first time applicants for the previous week. For the past 62 of 63 weeks, this initial report has been revised upward. the revisions, all 62 of them, never seem to make the headlines; we only hear about the more encouraging "first report" which is "always" lower than the final and actual number.
What this report demonstrates, revisions and all, is the fact that we seem to be locked into a "bottom" of sorts. We broke through the "400,000" barrier some 21 weeks ago, but have remained mired in the 360,000 to 388,000 since this time. As a final note, the only reason for a decline in the unemployment rate, should that be the case, is the fact that folks have simply quit trying to find a job. That was the case last month. The unemployment rate fell 1/10th of a point on the "strength" 550,000 workers leaving the workforce in the single month of April. If they leave the workforce, they are no longer counted and reduced number of jobless folks is treated as if the unemployed situation has improved.
Obviously, the so-called "unemployed" rate is not a dependable number.
End Notes - first reports and their revisions:
May 17 - initial report 370,000
May 3 - first report is 367,000 - revised with the May 17 report to 370,000
April 28 - first report is 365,000 --- adjusted up to 368,000 with the May 3 report
April 21 _ first report for week ending on the 21st, is 388,00 - the same initial report as last week's. An adjustment [upward ?] will occur with next Thursdays report. This was adjust up to 392,000.
April 14 - first report is 388,000 to be adjusted next Thursday. Adjust number is 389,000
April 7 : first report is 380,000 off an estimate of 359,000. This number was adjusted up to 388,000 !!!
March 31: first report was 357,000 but was adjusted upwards by 10,000 to 367,000
March 24 (week ending) -- 359,000, adjusted up 11,000 from the first report of the week before.
March 17 - 348,000 as a first report. This will be adjusted up to 350,000 to 352,000 by next Thursday (3/29). With the March 24 First Report, we find out that the week ending 3/17 missed the the truth completely/ Instead of 348,000, the final report was 364,000 or 16,000 off the mark.